Risk-Free Bet Hedge Calculator
This risk-free bet hedge calculator models a second-chance cash bet where a loss is refunded as a bonus bet. The result counts the refund at the conversion rate you expect, so its modeled value depends on that estimate.
Hedge stake
Enter your bet details and select Calculate hedge to see the result for every outcome.
Inputs changed. Recalculate to update.
Outcome breakdown
What a risk-free bet really is
Sportsbooks now usually call these offers second-chance bets, bet insurance or bet resets. If your first bet loses, the stake comes back as a bonus bet, normally stake-not-returned, rather than as cash. The offer is not free of risk: the refund is worth less than cash, and many offers cap it.
Enter the refund you would actually receive. If the offer caps the refund below your stake, enter the capped amount. The calculator rejects a refund larger than the qualifying stake.
Choosing a conversion rate
A bonus bet is worth only part of its face value in cash, because its stake is not returned when it wins. The conversion rate is the share of the refund you expect to keep after you use and hedge it. At 70%, a $100 refund counts as $70.
To estimate your own rate, enter a typical bonus in the bonus bet hedge calculator and divide the cash net by the bonus amount. The 70% in the example is an illustration only. A higher rate means a smaller hedge; at 0% the result equals the standard hedge calculator.
The losing outcome includes bonus value
When the qualifying bet loses, the figure shown is the hedge winnings, minus your stake, plus the expected cash value of the refund. That value only becomes cash after you place the bonus bet, and in practice it can be higher or lower.
Check the offer terms before you hedge: some promotions exclude certain markets, set minimum odds or expire the bonus after a few days.
Worked example
- A $100 qualifying bet at +200 (decimal 3.00) returns $300 if it wins. If it loses, a $100 bonus refund converting at 70% is worth $70.
- The opposing side is −125 (decimal 1.80). ($300 − $70) ÷ 1.80 = $127.78 hedge stake.
- Total cash staked is $227.78. Bet wins: $300 − $227.78 = $72.22. Bet loses: $127.78 × 1.80 − $227.78 + $70 = $72.22.
Common questions
Does this guarantee a profit?
No. A hedge can equalize a loss, and prices, fees or settlement differences can change the result.
Are the odds live?
No. The calculator does not connect to any sportsbook or exchange. Enter the prices you are actually offered and check them again before you place anything.
Why is the hedge smaller than for a normal bet?
The refund gives the losing outcome some value of its own, so less needs to be staked on the other side to balance the two results.
